Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Pseudo mid term elections

Last week we saw a number of mid term elections come and go. Notably the Virginia and New Jersey governorships. While Democrats should hold their heads high, more so because this is the first good news since Ross Perot decided to run as a third party candidate, they should not get too arrogant going into next year's real midterm elections.

New Jersey and Virginia had Democratic governors already Codey in New Jersey and Warner in Virginia. Codey being acting governor due to some "interesting" admissions by the former governor...but the Democrats and Republicans launched into mud slinging galor in both races, Hitler being brought up in Virginia...never a good idea to reference one of this planet's greatest villians, shows a sign of desperation by the user of the name.
However, Virginia has been a solid Red State, voting for Bush by a large margin in the last election. Yet it once again went Democratic...while New Jersey has always been an extension of both Blue Philadephia and very Blue New York City.

Should Democrats be rejoicing, is this the tipping point in a Republican string of victories?

I am not sure that the party of Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy and Clinton should be singing the witch is dead yet. There is much work to do before they can assume some branches of government from the Grand ole Party next year.

First, the Dems still do not have a uniting voice. They have not found the next Bill Clinton, a moderate Democrat who understands how to galvanize the Democrats as well as the center. And please don't tell me that person is his wife...while she is capable and extremely intelligent I think she is too divisive, much more than her husband. I am not sure she can appeal to enough on the left to offset all those she will alienate inthe middle and right. John Kerry....hmmm I think he is still trying to break out of his wooden box. Democrats rallied behind him and his medals last year only to see Carl Rove negate them with some schrewd if not tastless attacks, not sure they are ready to do that again. The aforementioned Governor Warner, he has all the right elements: southern governor, large state, right background etc. But he has not been given the stage to drive the party. John Edwards....what has happened to him in the past year? I have heard him on and off but it appears as if he has retired to North Carolina and is plotting his next step. Al Gore? Maybe he has grown his beard again and lives in the woods....

While there remains time for the Dems to find their voice and position, we have all been waiting for that moment the past 5 years, since Clinton left office.

Second, this does not mean the Republicans should not be nervous about what occured. They are under tremendous pressure for a variety of directions. The investigation on the "leaks" is not helping, Alito's nomination "saved" Bush from his right wing constituents but they are not in the clear, the electorate appears to final have woken up to the fact that these Republicans are cut tax/increase spending Repbulicans not something people are happy about, the bungled handling of hurrincane Katrina, and finally the war in Iraq. Bush is playing defense on many fronts and therefore cannot even lend his misguided voice to the party. Tom Delay is also playing defense and cannot keep the rank and file in order. And Frist is too worried about not ending up like Martha Stewart as well as his dimming presidential hopes to rally the party. The recent speaches by Bush and Cheney on those that "criticise the war in Iraq" as sign that the White House (really Carl Rove) are back on the offensive, trying to get control of the situation again and refocus on their "strengths."

What does this mean? A year is a life time with regards to politics, neither party really has a clear focus and direction. However the republicans hold the seats of power and do have a "war" we are fighting. In the end of the day I think most voters will fall back on that, and figure "better the devil we know than the devil we don't" plus there are more seats the dems are protecting then the republicans. I think that '06 will be a fairly quiety mid term, but after that the real fun starts as the white house comes into play....

1 comment:

GFC said...

Dear Krusty,
The repbulicans are torn. The "big tent" was just a nice way of saying we are not only for big business but we might actually accept others.

I agree that the Republicans are being pulled in multiple directons - Right Wing Religious zealots, Small Goverment supporters, Hawks, etc. The problem is the leadership has gotten too fat and arrogant with recent succes. And more importantly, the main "leader" is too weak to push the party in a direction rather allowing all facets pull him in multiple directions. Will the Dems get their act together? Who knows. However, the Dems were their own worst enemy in the House and Senate in 1996 and they have not recovered since.

McCain would actually get this registered Democrats support...